Ether is More Bearish Than Bitcoin as Trump Leads Over Harris

Here’s a quick look at the risk reversals for October: 

For November and beyond, Bitcoin’s outlook turns more positive, while Ether traders don’t expect upside volatility until December. In essence, traders expect Bitcoin to gain after the election results are announced on Nov. 8, but Ether may take longer to recover. 

On decentralized exchanges (DEX), the sentiment remains subdued for Ether. On Derive, a dominant DEX, there was a 2.5:1 sell-to-buy ratio for Ether call options in September. This shows traders are not expecting significant upside in Ether. Bitcoin options, on the other hand, had a more balanced flow between buyers and sellers. 

Nick Forster, founder of Derive, noted, “The higher number of Ether call options being sold suggests that traders see limited upside for now.” He emphasized that the divergence between Ether and Bitcoin will be important as the election approaches. 

Trump’s lead in prediction markets has reached 55.8%, compared to Harris’ 43.8%. Many believe that Trump’s victory could be positive for Bitcoin and DeFi due to his involvement with World Liberty Financial, a DeFi protocol launched in September. The protocol has submitted a proposal to Aave, seeking to connect stablecoin liquidity for Ether and wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), which could grow Aave’s user base. 

However, some analysts believe Solana, a key Ethereum competitor, might benefit more from a Trump win. Meanwhile, Ethereum could perform better under Harris’ leadership, according to Standard Chartered. 

As the election nears, traders will keep a close watch on these trends, especially Ether’s delayed recovery compared to Bitcoin.